OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
0-0-0 | Road
4
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
0-0-0 | Home
0
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
SENATORS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
OTT By 1 goal
11.4%
OTT By 2-3 goals
8.5%
TOR By 1 goal
19.7%
TOR By 2-3 goals
30.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
3
OTTAWA
Toronto
4.12
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.1
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 3, 2026
OTT @ TOR
3 - 2
Apr 15, 2026
TOR @ OTT
1 - 3
Mar 21, 2026
TOR @ OTT
2 - 5
Feb 28, 2026
OTT @ TOR
5 - 2
Dec 27, 2025
OTT @ TOR
5 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+57.5% more
Toronto: 23.0
vs
Ottawa: 14.6
Faceoff % (L5)
+13.3%
Toronto: 57.6%
vs
Ottawa: 44.3%
Takeaways (L5)
+9.0% more
Toronto: 5.5
vs
Ottawa: 5.0
Hits (L5)
+31.5% more
Ottawa: 41.3
vs
Toronto: 28.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
3.0
4
TOR Score
4.1
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
23.0 / 14.6
17.0 / 18.0
Faceoff %
57.6 / 44.3
52.2 / 47.8
Hits
28.3 / 41.3
40.0 / 25.0
Power Play %
3175.0 / 3388.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.3 / 25.1
29.0 / 19.0
Takeaways
5.5 / 5.0
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
OTT
TOR
OTT
ML
50%
2-2
0%
0-3
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-4
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
TTL
100%
4-0
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
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