INDIANA
PACERSIND
2-1 | Road
129
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
1-2 | Home
103
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
BUCKS
100%
PACERS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
241.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-7 points
25.5%
IND By 8-14 points
15.6%
MIL By 1-7 points
25.2%
MIL By 8-14 points
15.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
120.9
INDIANA
Milwaukee
120.74
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Indiana
118
INDIANA
Milwaukee
124
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.2
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 241.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
IND @ MIL
123 - 134
Feb 6, 2026
IND @ MIL
99 - 105
Dec 23, 2025
MIL @ IND
111 - 94
Nov 3, 2025
MIL @ IND
117 - 115
Apr 29, 2025
MIL @ IND
118 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+25.2% more
Indiana: 8.2
vs
Milwaukee: 6.1
Assists (L5)
+12.2% more
Indiana: 29.5
vs
Milwaukee: 25.9
Blocks (L5)
+11.9% more
Indiana: 5.5
vs
Milwaukee: 4.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.8%
Indiana: 82.6%
vs
Milwaukee: 74.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
120.9
129
MIL Score
120.7
103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.8 / 35.6
40.5 / 46.2
Assists
25.9 / 29.5
25.0 / 36.0
Blocks
4.8 / 5.5
1.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
48.7 / 46.0
41.6 / 60.2
Free Throw %
74.8 / 82.6
82.4 / 84.6
Rebounding
44.0 / 43.1
33.0 / 41.0
Steals
6.1 / 8.2
6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 11.4
8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
MIL
Advantage
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
IND
MIL
IND
ML
64%
61-35
48%
47-50
60%
49-32
54%
45-38
ATS
68%
65-31
59%
57-40
60%
49-32
54%
45-38
TTL
55%
53-43
54%
52-45
100%
81-0
100%
83-0
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