PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
14-13 | Road
3
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
17-11 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Alvarado
#46 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Alvarado | None-None | 1.98 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 3.48 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.98 Ldr
ERA
3.48
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
100%
CUBS
0%
PHILLIES
--
CUBS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
PHI By 1-2 runs
18.0%
PHI By 3-4 runs
12.8%
CHC By 1-2 runs
18.8%
CHC By 3-4 runs
14.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.9
PHILADELPHIA
Chicago
5.15
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim
Phillies (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 23, 2026
PHI @ CHC
7 - 8
Apr 22, 2026
PHI @ CHC
2 - 7
Apr 21, 2026
PHI @ CHC
4 - 7
Apr 20, 2026
PHI @ CHC
1 - 5
Apr 15, 2026
CHC @ PHI
11 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Chicago
CHC
2
Games Played
2
3.50
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.286
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.724
▲
OPS
.374
3
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+28.0% more
Chicago: 0.7
vs
Philadelphia: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+15.7% more
Chicago: 14.4
vs
Philadelphia: 12.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+85.7% more
Philadelphia: 3.5
vs
Chicago: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+35.0%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.9
3
CHC Score
5.2
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.6 / 9.4
3.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 9.4
3.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
14.4 / 12.5
5.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.2 / 4.0
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
PHI
CHC
PHI
ML
58%
93-68
59%
97-67
51%
82-79
49%
80-84
ATS
61%
97-63-1
65%
107-57
47%
75-85-1
51%
83-81
TTL
52%
81-74-6
57%
88-67-9
46%
72-83-6
51%
78-76-9
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