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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

0-0-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Apr 26 • 7:00 PM ET
Canadian Tire Centre
View Odds Details →

OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

0-0-0  |  Home

4
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
📊
SENATORS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS --
SENATORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Toronto)
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 SenatorsOTT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

56.9%

Senators Cover

43.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1 goal

18.7%

TOR By 2-3 goals

22.5%

OTT By 1 goal

15.8%

OTT By 2-3 goals

15.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.01
TORONTO
3.66
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
4
TORONTO
3
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -0.3
D
Sim Maple Leafs (-0) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 OTT @ TOR 3 - 2
Apr 15, 2026 TOR @ OTT 1 - 3
Mar 21, 2026 TOR @ OTT 2 - 5
Feb 28, 2026 OTT @ TOR 5 - 2
Dec 27, 2025 OTT @ TOR 5 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +38.2% more
Toronto: 5.7 vs Ottawa: 3.5
Blocked Shots (L5) +34.6% more
Toronto: 20.4 vs Ottawa: 13.4
Power Play % (L5) +21.8%
Toronto: 47.6% vs Ottawa: 25.8%
Faceoff % (L5) +12.6%
Toronto: 57.7% vs Ottawa: 45.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 4.0 3
OTT Score 3.7 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 13.4 / 20.4 17.0 / 28.0
Faceoff % 45.1 / 57.7 42.6 / 57.4
Hits 40.0 / 28.0 44.0 / 29.0
Power Play % 25.8 / 47.6 50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 27.2 / 22.4 21.0 / 34.0
Takeaways 3.5 / 5.7 8.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
88%MONEY12%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
TOR
OTT
TOR
ML
0% 0-3
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-3
0% 0-4
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
TTL
67% 2-1
100% 4-0
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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