INDIANA
PACERSIND
2-0 | Road
101
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
0-2 | Home
117
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
BUCKS
100%
PACERS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IND -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-7 points
26.1%
IND By 8-14 points
16.7%
MIL By 1-7 points
24.5%
MIL By 8-14 points
14.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
122.1
INDIANA
Milwaukee
121.27
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Indiana
118
INDIANA
Milwaukee
124
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -0.8
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 243.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
IND @ MIL
123 - 134
Feb 6, 2026
IND @ MIL
99 - 105
Dec 23, 2025
MIL @ IND
111 - 94
Nov 3, 2025
MIL @ IND
117 - 115
Apr 29, 2025
MIL @ IND
118 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+37.4% more
Indiana: 8.3
vs
Milwaukee: 5.2
Blocks (L5)
+15.8% more
Indiana: 6.2
vs
Milwaukee: 5.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+14.2%
Indiana: 85.5%
vs
Milwaukee: 71.3%
Assists (L5)
+12.0% more
Indiana: 28.3
vs
Milwaukee: 24.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
122.1
101
MIL Score
121.3
117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.4 / 37.5
36.6 / 31.7
Assists
24.9 / 28.3
28.0 / 32.0
Blocks
5.2 / 6.2
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.5 / 47.4
47.2 / 43.3
Free Throw %
71.3 / 85.5
81.8 / 76.9
Rebounding
42.0 / 44.6
48.0 / 40.0
Steals
5.2 / 8.3
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.6 / 10.1
13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
MIL
Advantage
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
IND
MIL
IND
ML
64%
61-35
48%
47-50
60%
49-32
54%
45-38
ATS
68%
65-31
59%
57-40
60%
49-32
54%
45-38
TTL
55%
53-43
54%
52-45
100%
81-0
100%
83-0
Contextual Game News
Phillies' 2027 Forecast: Four Farmhands Ready to Step Up
Tampa Bay Rays Expected to Exercise $13 Million Club Option on Y…
Haliburton Returns to Hilton Coliseum as Pacers Defeat Timberwol…
Phoenix Suns 2026-27 Season Preview: Can Devin Booker and the Re…
JJ Redick Sets Record Straight on Lakers 'Pieces Fit' Comment Af…