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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

13-12  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, Apr 25 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

16-10  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Orion Kerkering
STARTING PITCHER

Orion Kerkering

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Orion Kerkering None-None 5.79 -- 1.0 1
Caleb Thielbar None-None 3.60 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
5.79 ERA Ldr 3.60
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
100%
📊
CUBS
0%
PHILLIES --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Chicago)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

33.9%

Cubs Cover

66.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

PHI By 1-2 runs

14.5%

PHI By 3-4 runs

8.7%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

17.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.45
PHILADELPHIA
6.11
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
5
PHILADELPHIA
4
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Phillies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim Phillies (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 23, 2026 PHI @ CHC 7 - 8
Apr 22, 2026 PHI @ CHC 2 - 7
Apr 21, 2026 PHI @ CHC 4 - 7
Apr 20, 2026 PHI @ CHC 1 - 5
Apr 15, 2026 CHC @ PHI 11 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Chicago CHC
2
Games Played
2
3.50 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.286 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.724 ▲
OPS
.374
3 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +137.0% more
Chicago: 1.7 vs Philadelphia: 0.3
Errors (L5) +63.0% more
Chicago: 1.1 vs Philadelphia: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +52.1% more
Chicago: 17.9 vs Philadelphia: 11.8
Runs per Game (Season) +85.7% more
Philadelphia: 3.5 vs Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 4.5 0
CHC Score 6.1 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.2 / 9.7 11.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 10.2 12.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 17.9 / 11.8 17.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.9 / 3.3 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
PHI
CHC
PHI
ML
58% 93-68
59% 97-67
51% 82-79
49% 80-84
ATS
61% 97-63-1
65% 107-57
47% 75-85-1
51% 83-81
TTL
52% 81-74-6
57% 88-67-9
46% 72-83-6
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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