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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

0-0-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Thu, Apr 24 • 7:00 PM ET
Canadian Tire Centre
View Odds Details →

OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

0-0-0  |  Home

2
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
📊
SENATORS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS --
SENATORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Ottawa)
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 SenatorsOTT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

44.6%

Senators Cover

55.4%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around OTT -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)

TOR By 1 goal

16.2%

TOR By 2-3 goals

15.8%

OTT By 1 goal

18.5%

OTT By 2-3 goals

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.74
TORONTO
4.01
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
4
TORONTO
3
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Senators Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Senators (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -0.3
D
Sim Maple Leafs (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 OTT @ TOR 3 - 2
Apr 15, 2026 TOR @ OTT 1 - 3
Mar 21, 2026 TOR @ OTT 2 - 5
Feb 28, 2026 OTT @ TOR 5 - 2
Dec 27, 2025 OTT @ TOR 5 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +61.8% more
Ottawa: 38.0 vs Toronto: 23.5
Shots on Goal (L5) +30.4% more
Ottawa: 30.8 vs Toronto: 23.6
Blocked Shots (L5) +47.9% more
Toronto: 22.1 vs Ottawa: 11.5
Takeaways (L5) +26.8% more
Toronto: 6.6 vs Ottawa: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.7 3
OTT Score 4.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 11.5 / 22.1 17.0 / 17.0
Faceoff % 49.0 / 55.1 37.3 / 62.7
Hits 38.0 / 23.5 44.0 / 37.0
Power Play % 26.2 / 46.4 25.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal 30.8 / 23.6 20.0 / 20.0
Takeaways 4.8 / 6.6 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
87%MONEY13%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
TOR
OTT
TOR
ML
0% 0-3
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-3
0% 0-4
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
TTL
67% 2-1
100% 4-0
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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