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OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

0-0-0  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Apr 22 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

0-0-0  |  Home

3
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
100%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
SENATORS --
MAPLE LEAFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Toronto)
SenatorsOTT (-3.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Senators Cover

48.6%

Maple Leafs Cover

51.4%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

OTT By 1 goal

17.2%

OTT By 2-3 goals

17.9%

TOR By 1 goal

17.8%

TOR By 2-3 goals

19.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.59
OTTAWA
3.66
TORONTO
Simulated Score
2
OTTAWA
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim Maple Leafs (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2026 OTT @ TOR 3 - 2
Apr 15, 2026 TOR @ OTT 1 - 3
Mar 21, 2026 TOR @ OTT 2 - 5
Feb 28, 2026 OTT @ TOR 5 - 2
Dec 27, 2025 OTT @ TOR 5 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +51.3% more
Toronto: 6.3 vs Ottawa: 4.2
Blocked Shots (L5) +20.3% more
Toronto: 17.2 vs Ottawa: 14.3
Faceoff % (L5) +5.8%
Toronto: 56.0% vs Ottawa: 50.2%
Hits (L5) +35.1% more
Ottawa: 35.0 vs Toronto: 22.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OTT Score 3.6 2
TOR Score 3.7 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 17.2 / 14.3 32.0 / 6.0
Faceoff % 56.0 / 50.2 53.4 / 46.6
Hits 22.7 / 35.0 25.0 / 44.0
Power Play % 19.7 / 22.7 100.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal 24.9 / 32.2 21.0 / 28.0
Takeaways 6.3 / 4.2 7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
89%MONEY11%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
OTT
TOR
OTT
ML
50% 2-2
0% 0-3
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
ATS
0% 0-4
0% 0-3
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
TTL
100% 4-0
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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