OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
0-0-0 | Road
2
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
0-0-0 | Home
6
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
SENATORS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around OTT -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
OTT By 1 goal
19.6%
OTT By 2-3 goals
27.3%
TOR By 1 goal
13.4%
TOR By 2-3 goals
11.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
3.77
OTTAWA
Toronto
2.99
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Senators
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Senators (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.8
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 3, 2026
OTT @ TOR
3 - 2
Apr 15, 2026
TOR @ OTT
1 - 3
Mar 21, 2026
TOR @ OTT
2 - 5
Feb 28, 2026
OTT @ TOR
5 - 2
Dec 27, 2025
OTT @ TOR
5 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+29.6%
Ottawa: 34.1%
vs
Toronto: 4.5%
Hits (L5)
+22.1% more
Ottawa: 24.5
vs
Toronto: 19.1
Shots on Goal (L5)
+20.2% more
Ottawa: 31.8
vs
Toronto: 25.4
Takeaways (L5)
+15.0% more
Toronto: 5.5
vs
Ottawa: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
3.8
2
TOR Score
3.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.8 / 15.5
18.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
56.0 / 53.3
56.1 / 43.9
Hits
19.1 / 24.5
30.0 / 56.0
Power Play %
4.5 / 34.1
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
25.4 / 31.8
24.0 / 33.0
Takeaways
5.5 / 4.8
8.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
OTT
TOR
OTT
ML
50%
2-2
0%
0-3
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-4
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
TTL
100%
4-0
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
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