MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
0-0 | Road
98
INDIANA
PACERSIND
0-0 | Home
117
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
PACERS
0%
BUCKS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
247.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IND -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
MIL By 1-7 points
25.0%
MIL By 8-14 points
14.8%
IND By 1-7 points
25.7%
IND By 8-14 points
15.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
123.36
MILWAUKEE
Indiana
123.69
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
121
MILWAUKEE
Indiana
112
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pacers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.3
D
Sim
Bucks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 247.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 15, 2026
IND @ MIL
123 - 134
Feb 6, 2026
IND @ MIL
99 - 105
Dec 23, 2025
MIL @ IND
111 - 94
Nov 3, 2025
MIL @ IND
117 - 115
Apr 29, 2025
MIL @ IND
118 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+51.7% more
Indiana: 8.7
vs
Milwaukee: 5.7
Steals (L5)
+30.0% more
Indiana: 9.6
vs
Milwaukee: 7.4
Rebounding (L5)
+20.8% more
Indiana: 50.3
vs
Milwaukee: 41.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.8%
Indiana: 78.9%
vs
Milwaukee: 75.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
123.4
98
IND Score
123.7
117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.1 / 44.2
38.2 / 24.3
Assists
27.1 / 29.0
28.0 / 15.0
Blocks
8.7 / 5.7
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.0 / 52.6
51.9 / 41.7
Free Throw %
78.9 / 75.1
76.9 / 67.9
Rebounding
50.3 / 41.6
43.0 / 41.0
Steals
9.6 / 7.4
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 13.6
8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
MIL
IND
MIL
ML
48%
47-50
64%
61-35
54%
45-38
60%
49-32
ATS
59%
57-40
68%
65-31
54%
45-38
60%
49-32
TTL
54%
52-45
55%
53-43
100%
83-0
100%
81-0
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