DETROIT
RED WINGSDET
39-35-7 | Road
3
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
51-26-4 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Moritz Seider
#53 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Chris Tanev
#8 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moritz Seider | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Chris Tanev | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
--
--
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
RED WINGS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
RED WINGS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
DET By 1 goal
7.7%
DET By 2-3 goals
4.6%
TOR By 1 goal
18.3%
TOR By 2-3 goals
36.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
2.31
DETROIT
Toronto
4.09
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Detroit
2
DETROIT
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.8
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 21, 2026
DET @ TOR
2 - 1
Dec 28, 2025
TOR @ DET
2 - 3
Oct 13, 2025
DET @ TOR
3 - 2
Oct 11, 2025
TOR @ DET
3 - 6
Oct 4, 2025
TOR @ DET
5 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+26.2% more
Toronto: 19.7
vs
Detroit: 15.6
Faceoff % (L5)
+5.0%
Toronto: 51.8%
vs
Detroit: 46.8%
Takeaways (L5)
+12.8% more
Detroit: 5.5
vs
Toronto: 4.8
Power Play % (L5)
+2.7%
Detroit: 9.4%
vs
Toronto: 6.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
2.3
3
TOR Score
4.1
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
19.7 / 15.6
11.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
51.8 / 46.8
64.4 / 35.6
Hits
20.1 / 19.5
17.0 / 13.0
Power Play %
6.7 / 9.4
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
28.1 / 28.8
20.0 / 34.0
Takeaways
4.8 / 5.5
7.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
DET
TOR
DET
ML
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
ATS
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
TTL
100%
4-0
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
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