TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
50-26-4 | Road
4
BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
35-38-7 | Home
0
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 0.00 | 1.000 | 1 |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen | None-None | 3.05 | 0.903 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
0.00 Ldr
GAA
3.05
1.000 Ldr
Save %
0.903
1 Ldr
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
SABRES
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
SABRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1 goal
17.8%
TOR By 2-3 goals
19.5%
BUF By 1 goal
17.1%
BUF By 2-3 goals
17.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4.16
TORONTO
Buffalo
4.08
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
TOR @ BUF
2 - 3
Jan 27, 2026
BUF @ TOR
7 - 4
Oct 25, 2025
BUF @ TOR
3 - 4
Oct 24, 2025
TOR @ BUF
3 - 5
Apr 15, 2025
TOR @ BUF
4 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+38.4% more
Toronto: 20.1
vs
Buffalo: 12.4
Hits (L5)
+21.3% more
Toronto: 21.7
vs
Buffalo: 17.1
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.9%
Toronto: 52.2%
vs
Buffalo: 45.3%
Takeaways (L5)
+73.7% more
Buffalo: 5.5
vs
Toronto: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.2
4
BUF Score
4.1
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.4 / 20.1
12.0 / 19.0
Faceoff %
45.3 / 52.2
49.2 / 50.8
Hits
17.1 / 21.7
13.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
3467.0 / 1011.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
28.5 / 26.1
35.0 / 32.0
Takeaways
5.5 / 3.2
5.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
TOR
BUF
TOR
ML
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
TTL
33%
1-2
100%
4-0
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
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