DETROIT
PISTONSDET
44-37 | Road
133
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
47-34 | Home
140
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
100%
BUCKS
0%
PISTONS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
DET By 1-7 points
21.9%
DET By 8-14 points
11.0%
MIL By 1-7 points
27.2%
MIL By 8-14 points
19.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
116.44
DETROIT
Milwaukee
119.23
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Detroit
108
DETROIT
Milwaukee
115
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bucks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.8
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 235.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 8, 2026
MIL @ DET
111 - 137
Dec 6, 2025
MIL @ DET
112 - 124
Dec 3, 2025
DET @ MIL
109 - 113
Nov 22, 2025
DET @ MIL
129 - 116
Oct 9, 2025
DET @ MIL
111 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+72.0% more
Milwaukee: 8.6
vs
Detroit: 5.0
Assists (L5)
+8.9% more
Milwaukee: 28.5
vs
Detroit: 26.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.9%
Milwaukee: 74.0%
vs
Detroit: 67.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Milwaukee: 40.1%
vs
Detroit: 38.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
116.4
133
MIL Score
119.2
140
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.1 / 38.1
52.3 / 37.3
Assists
28.5 / 26.2
30.0 / 35.0
Blocks
5.1 / 6.7
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.8 / 48.9
58.1 / 47.7
Free Throw %
74.0 / 67.1
77.3 / 64.3
Rebounding
43.5 / 40.3
38.0 / 42.0
Steals
8.6 / 5.0
5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
9.9 / 11.7
21.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
DET
MIL
DET
ML
64%
61-35
55%
64-53
60%
49-32
49%
47-49
ATS
68%
65-31
53%
60-54-3
60%
49-32
49%
47-49
TTL
55%
53-43
60%
70-46-1
100%
81-0
100%
96-0
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