COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
3-11 | Road
0
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
12-3 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Freeland
#21 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael King
#34 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Freeland | None-None | 4.88 | -- | 5.0 | 2 |
| Michael King | None-None | 2.42 | -- | 9.0 | 8 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.88
ERA
Ldr 2.42
--
WHIP
--
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 9.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
100%
PADRES
0%
ROCKIES
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
COL By 1-2 runs
10.0%
COL By 3-4 runs
5.0%
SD By 1-2 runs
18.1%
SD By 3-4 runs
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
2.26
COLORADO
San Diego
5.47
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Colorado
4
COLORADO
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.2
D
Sim
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
SD @ COL
9 - 2
Sep 16, 2026
SD @ COL
9 - 3
Sep 15, 2026
SD @ COL
3 - 9
Sep 14, 2026
SD @ COL
8 - 7
Jul 29, 2026
COL @ SD
1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.64
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.254
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.739
OPS
▲
.925
180
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+101.0% more
San Diego: 1.5
vs
Colorado: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+40.0% more
San Diego: 13.5
vs
Colorado: 9.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+29.3% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Colorado: 4.6
Hits (L5)
+27.5% more
San Diego: 8.0
vs
Colorado: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
2.3
0
SD Score
5.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 1.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 6.3
11.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 7.7
8.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
13.5 / 9.7
15.0 / 2.0
Walks
2.5 / 3.3
1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
COL
SD
COL
ML
51%
85-83
60%
97-64
51%
85-82
55%
88-73
ATS
54%
91-77
60%
97-64
55%
92-75
52%
83-78
TTL
51%
82-80-6
60%
93-62-6
54%
86-74-6
50%
77-78-6
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