Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Padres COL @ SD

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

3-10  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Apr 12 • 8:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

11-3  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Jimmy Herget
STARTING PITCHER

Jimmy Herget

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jeremiah Estrada
STARTING PITCHER

Jeremiah Estrada

#56 | RP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jimmy Herget None-None 3.60 -- 1.1 --
Jeremiah Estrada None-None 1.08 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.60 ERA Ldr 1.08
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
100%
📊
PADRES
0%
ROCKIES --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.7
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.7 points (San Diego)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

17.6%

Padres Cover

82.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -3.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

COL By 1-2 runs

8.5%

COL By 3-4 runs

4.0%

SD By 1-2 runs

17.0%

SD By 3-4 runs

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
2.2
COLORADO
5.93
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
4
COLORADO
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.7
D
Sim Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 SD @ COL 9 - 2
Sep 16, 2026 SD @ COL 9 - 3
Sep 15, 2026 SD @ COL 3 - 9
Sep 14, 2026 SD @ COL 8 - 7
Jul 29, 2026 COL @ SD 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.64
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.254
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.739
OPS
▲ .925
180 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +52.0% more
San Diego: 1.2 vs Colorado: 0.7
Hits (L5) +41.7% more
San Diego: 10.5 vs Colorado: 7.4
Total Bases (L5) +31.8% more
San Diego: 15.8 vs Colorado: 12.0
Runs per Game (Season) +29.3% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Colorado: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 2.2 0
SD Score 5.9 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 1.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.5 / 7.4 3.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.7 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 7.5 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.8 / 12.0 9.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.3 / 3.5 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
3%MONEY97%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
COL
SD
COL
ML
51% 85-83
60% 97-64
51% 85-82
55% 88-73
ATS
54% 91-77
60% 97-64
55% 92-75
52% 83-78
TTL
51% 82-80-6
60% 93-62-6
54% 86-74-6
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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