MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
46-33 | Road
141
MEMPHIS
GRIZZLIESMEM
47-32 | Home
125
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
GRIZZLIES
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
GRIZZLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.8
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.8 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -6.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-7 points
26.3%
MIN By 8-14 points
25.2%
MEM By 1-7 points
15.6%
MEM By 8-14 points
6.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
119.52
MINNESOTA
Memphis
112.7
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
Minnesota
118
MINNESOTA
Memphis
122
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Grizzlies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.8
D
Sim
Grizzlies (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 232.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
MEM @ MIN
110 - 117
Feb 2, 2026
MIN @ MEM
128 - 137
Jan 31, 2026
MIN @ MEM
131 - 114
Dec 17, 2025
MEM @ MIN
116 - 110
Apr 10, 2025
MIN @ MEM
141 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+32.6% more
Minnesota: 5.3
vs
Memphis: 3.6
Assists (L5)
+12.0% more
Minnesota: 26.2
vs
Memphis: 23.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.1%
Minnesota: 48.4%
vs
Memphis: 45.3%
Steals (L5)
+58.0% more
Memphis: 8.4
vs
Minnesota: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
119.5
141
MEM Score
112.7
125
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.4 / 34.2
50.0 / 45.5
Assists
23.0 / 26.2
26.0 / 29.0
Blocks
3.6 / 5.3
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 48.4
51.7 / 55.2
Free Throw %
80.8 / 77.6
71.4 / 89.3
Rebounding
51.6 / 45.7
33.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.4 / 5.3
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.7 / 14.6
15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
MEM
25-57-0
(30.5%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
MEM
Advantage
37-45-0
(45.1%)
Margin: -6.0
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
MIN
MEM
MIN
ML
57%
59-44
54%
63-53
50%
41-41
54%
50-43
ATS
63%
65-38
58%
67-49
50%
41-41
54%
50-43
TTL
70%
71-31-1
63%
72-43-1
100%
82-0
100%
93-0
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