BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
5-6 | Road
3
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
5-6 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jackson Holliday
#7 | Second Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Holliday | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Merrill Kelly | None-None | 7.20 | -- | 6.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
7.20
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
0%
DIAMONDBACKS
100%
ORIOLES
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.0%
BAL By 3-4 runs
14.7%
ARI By 1-2 runs
17.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
12.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
5.15
BALTIMORE
Arizona
4.75
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Orioles (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 15, 2026
ARI @ BAL
8 - 5
Apr 14, 2026
ARI @ BAL
4 - 3
Apr 13, 2026
ARI @ BAL
7 - 9
Apr 9, 2025
BAL @ ARI
0 - 9
Apr 8, 2025
BAL @ ARI
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Arizona
ARI
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.711
OPS
▲
.720
199
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+63.0% more
Baltimore: 0.7
vs
Arizona: 0.1
Home Runs (Season)
+16.6% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Arizona: 166.0
Walks (L5)
+155.6% more
Arizona: 3.7
vs
Baltimore: 1.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+45.6% more
Arizona: 8.6
vs
Baltimore: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
5.2
3
ARI Score
4.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.7
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.0 / 7.3
5.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 5.9
6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.5 / 10.7
10.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.7 / 1.4
2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
BAL
ARI
BAL
ML
54%
87-74
53%
83-73
54%
86-74
57%
90-69
ATS
57%
91-70
61%
95-60-1
56%
89-71
57%
90-68-1
TTL
52%
80-73-8
54%
81-70-5
49%
73-77-9
51%
78-75-6
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