BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
2-4 | Road
8
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
3-3 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Whitlock
#22 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jackson Holliday
#7 | Second Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Whitlock | None-None | 1.50 | -- | 2.0 | 3 |
| Jackson Holliday | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.50
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
3
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
0%
ORIOLES
100%
RED SOX
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.5%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.0%
BAL By 1-2 runs
16.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
11.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4.3
BOSTON
Baltimore
3.42
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Boston
5
BOSTON
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim
Red Sox (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
BOS @ BAL
3 - 1
Sep 5, 2026
BOS @ BAL
5 - 0
Sep 4, 2026
BOS @ BAL
1 - 0
Sep 3, 2026
BOS @ BAL
6 - 5
Jul 22, 2026
BAL @ BOS
5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Baltimore
BAL
2
Games Played
▲
161
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.234
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.409
OPS
▲
.711
2
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+11.0% more
Boston: 0.6
vs
Baltimore: 0.5
Home Runs (Season)
+9850.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+346.0% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Boston: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+71.4% more
Baltimore: 3.4
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.3
8
BAL Score
3.4
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 7.9
8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.6
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 6.9
11.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 12.0
14.0 / 22.0
Walks
3.4 / 2.0
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
BOS
BAL
BOS
ML
53%
83-73
50%
80-80
57%
90-69
47%
76-87
ATS
61%
95-60-1
58%
93-67
57%
90-68-1
48%
79-84
TTL
54%
81-70-5
46%
72-83-5
51%
78-75-6
47%
74-83-6
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