FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
44-26-4 | Road
2
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
45-25-4 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Steven Lorentz
#18 | C@
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Lorentz | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 2.00 | 0.935 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
2.00
--
Save %
0.935
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
PANTHERS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
FLA By 1 goal
16.8%
FLA By 2-3 goals
17.2%
TOR By 1 goal
18.0%
TOR By 2-3 goals
20.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida
2.69
FLORIDA
Toronto
2.83
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Florida
3
FLORIDA
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 11, 2026
FLA @ TOR
6 - 2
Feb 26, 2026
TOR @ FLA
1 - 5
Jan 6, 2026
FLA @ TOR
1 - 4
Dec 2, 2025
TOR @ FLA
4 - 1
May 18, 2025
FLA @ TOR
6 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+32.8% more
Toronto: 18.1
vs
Florida: 13.6
Faceoff % (L5)
+14.7%
Toronto: 59.3%
vs
Florida: 44.6%
Power Play % (L5)
+7.1%
Toronto: 30.7%
vs
Florida: 23.6%
Takeaways (L5)
+23.2% more
Florida: 4.4
vs
Toronto: 3.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FLA Score
2.7
2
TOR Score
2.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
18.1 / 13.6
21.0 / 7.0
Faceoff %
59.3 / 44.6
47.9 / 52.1
Hits
24.2 / 26.9
25.0 / 39.0
Power Play %
30.7 / 23.6
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
26.8 / 28.5
26.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
3.4 / 4.4
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
FLA
TOR
FLA
ML
50%
2-2
0%
0-4
50%
2-2
0%
0-4
ATS
0%
0-4
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
TTL
100%
4-0
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
0%
0-4
Contextual Game News
Barkov Eyes Late November Return; Marchand Could Be Back Soon fo…
Panthers Eyeing Vladimir Tarasenko as Insurance for Brad Marchan…
Joseph Woll's Strong Start in Philadelphia Has Maple Leafs Fans …
Canadiens Turn to Rookie Jacob Fowler in Net Against Predators; …
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear