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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

4-4  |  Road

10
FINAL
Wed, Apr 2 • 3:35 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

2-4  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Ferguson
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Ferguson

#64 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jeffrey Springs
STARTING PITCHER

Jeffrey Springs

#59 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Ferguson None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
Jeffrey Springs None-None 4.00 -- 3.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 4.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 3.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
0%
📊
ATHLETICS
100%
CUBS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

78.2%

Athletics Cover

21.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

18.2%

CHC By 3-4 runs

19.7%

ATH By 1-2 runs

10.3%

ATH By 3-4 runs

5.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.91
CHICAGO
1.79
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
5
CHICAGO
3
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.1
D
Sim Cubs (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 4, 2026 ATH @ CHC 6 - 7
Jun 3, 2026 ATH @ CHC 5 - 4
Jun 2, 2026 ATH @ CHC 2 - 1
Apr 2, 2025 CHC @ ATH 10 - 2
Apr 1, 2025 CHC @ ATH 7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Athletics ATH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.374
OPS
▲ .719
0
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +36.6% more
Chicago: 21.0 vs Athletics: 13.3
Home Runs (L5) +34.2% more
Chicago: 2.3 vs Athletics: 1.5
Hits (L5) +28.0% more
Chicago: 11.1 vs Athletics: 8.0
Home Runs (Season) +19400.0% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 4.9 10
ATH Score 1.8 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.1 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.0 / 11.1 5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 2.3 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 6.2 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 13.3 / 21.0 9.0 / 18.0
Walks 4.6 / 3.3 7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
ATH Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
CHC
ATH
CHC
ML
59% 95-67
58% 93-68
54% 87-74
51% 82-79
ATS
52% 84-78
61% 97-63-1
50% 81-80
47% 75-85-1
TTL
54% 84-73-5
52% 81-74-6
42% 66-90-5
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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