Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Orioles BOS @ BAL

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

1-4  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Apr 2 • 6:35 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

3-2  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Aroldis Chapman
STARTING PITCHER

Aroldis Chapman

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler O'Neill

#9 | Right Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Aroldis Chapman None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
Tyler O'Neill None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
100%
📊
ORIOLES
0%
RED SOX --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Baltimore)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

49.5%

Orioles Cover

50.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BOS By 1-2 runs

18.3%

BOS By 3-4 runs

13.4%

BAL By 1-2 runs

18.5%

BAL By 3-4 runs

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.02
BOSTON
4.07
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
5
BOSTON
4
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Orioles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Orioles (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim Red Sox (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 BOS @ BAL 3 - 1
Sep 5, 2026 BOS @ BAL 5 - 0
Sep 4, 2026 BOS @ BAL 1 - 0
Sep 3, 2026 BOS @ BAL 6 - 5
Jul 22, 2026 BAL @ BOS 5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Baltimore BAL
2
Games Played
▲ 161
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .234
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .314
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.409
OPS
▲ .711
2
Home Runs
▲ 199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +9850.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +346.0% more
Baltimore: 4.5 vs Boston: 1.0
Walks (L5) +82.5% more
Baltimore: 3.5 vs Boston: 1.9
Home Runs (L5) +77.0% more
Baltimore: 1.1 vs Boston: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 4.0 3
BAL Score 4.1 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.1 / 6.9 4.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 5.8 9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 15.9 / 10.0 4.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.5 / 1.9 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
BOS
BAL
BOS
ML
53% 83-73
50% 80-80
57% 90-69
47% 76-87
ATS
61% 95-60-1
58% 93-67
57% 90-68-1
48% 79-84
TTL
54% 81-70-5
46% 72-83-5
51% 78-75-6
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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