PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
35-40 | Road
123
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
40-34 | Home
133
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
0%
BUCKS
100%
SUNS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PHX -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
PHX By 1-7 points
25.6%
PHX By 8-14 points
15.7%
MIL By 1-7 points
25.1%
MIL By 8-14 points
14.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
112.04
PHOENIX
Milwaukee
111.78
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Phoenix
112
PHOENIX
Milwaukee
118
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Suns
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Suns (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -0.3
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 223.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
MIL @ PHX
108 - 105
Mar 10, 2026
PHX @ MIL
129 - 114
Apr 1, 2025
PHX @ MIL
123 - 133
Mar 24, 2025
MIL @ PHX
106 - 108
Mar 17, 2024
PHX @ MIL
129 - 140
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+28.0% more
Phoenix: 4.2
vs
Milwaukee: 3.0
Turnovers (L5)
+21.7% more
Phoenix: 16.2
vs
Milwaukee: 12.7
Steals (L5)
+16.5% more
Phoenix: 6.6
vs
Milwaukee: 5.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.7%
Phoenix: 83.8%
vs
Milwaukee: 72.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
112.0
123
MIL Score
111.8
133
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.0 / 38.1
58.6 / 40.0
Assists
23.7 / 26.6
32.0 / 26.0
Blocks
3.0 / 4.2
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
49.5 / 48.4
68.9 / 47.8
Free Throw %
72.1 / 83.8
93.3 / 81.0
Rebounding
36.5 / 40.5
29.0 / 33.0
Steals
5.5 / 6.6
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 16.2
20.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
PHX
MIL
PHX
ML
64%
61-35
57%
60-45
60%
49-32
51%
45-43
ATS
68%
65-31
58%
59-43-3
60%
49-32
51%
45-43
TTL
55%
53-43
59%
61-42-2
100%
81-0
100%
88-0
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