WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
47-17-9 | Road
4
BOSTON
BRUINSBOS
30-35-9 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Jeremy Swayman
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 3.00 | 0.875 | -- |
| Jeremy Swayman | None-None | 4.12 | 0.875 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.00 Ldr
GAA
4.12
0.875
Save %
0.875
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
BRUINS
0%
CAPITALS
--
BRUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BOS -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
WSH By 1 goal
16.1%
WSH By 2-3 goals
15.6%
BOS By 1 goal
18.6%
BOS By 2-3 goals
21.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
2.37
WASHINGTON
Boston
2.66
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Boston
3
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bruins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bruins
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bruins (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.3
D
Sim
Bruins (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
BOS @ WSH
3 - 2
Mar 7, 2026
WSH @ BOS
1 - 3
Oct 8, 2025
BOS @ WSH
3 - 1
Oct 2, 2025
BOS @ WSH
3 - 1
Sep 21, 2025
WSH @ BOS
5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+53.3% more
Boston: 27.1
vs
Washington: 17.7
Power Play % (L5)
+21.3%
Boston: 38.2%
vs
Washington: 16.9%
Shots on Goal (L5)
+27.3% more
Washington: 28.6
vs
Boston: 20.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
2.4
4
BOS Score
2.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.8 / 12.1
13.0 / 15.0
Faceoff %
51.4 / 51.3
52.5 / 47.5
Hits
27.1 / 17.7
20.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
38.2 / 16.9
33.3 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
20.8 / 28.6
24.0 / 32.0
Takeaways
4.0 / 4.0
8.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
WSH
BOS
WSH
ML
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
TTL
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
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