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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

3-4  |  Road

7
FINAL
Tue, Apr 1 • 10:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

2-3  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Ferguson
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Ferguson

#64 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jacob Wilson
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Wilson

#5 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Ferguson None-None 0.00 -- 1.1 1
Jacob Wilson None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
0%
📊
ATHLETICS
100%
CUBS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.7
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.7 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

82.1%

Athletics Cover

17.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -3.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

17.1%

CHC By 3-4 runs

19.7%

ATH By 1-2 runs

8.7%

ATH By 3-4 runs

4.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.79
CHICAGO
1.11
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
5
CHICAGO
3
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.7
D
Sim Cubs (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 4, 2026 ATH @ CHC 6 - 7
Jun 3, 2026 ATH @ CHC 5 - 4
Jun 2, 2026 ATH @ CHC 2 - 1
Apr 2, 2025 CHC @ ATH 10 - 2
Apr 1, 2025 CHC @ ATH 7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Athletics ATH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.374
OPS
▲ .719
0
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +48.7% more
Chicago: 2.4 vs Athletics: 1.2
Total Bases (L5) +43.7% more
Chicago: 23.0 vs Athletics: 13.0
Hits (L5) +34.3% more
Chicago: 12.1 vs Athletics: 7.9
Home Runs (Season) +19400.0% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 4.8 7
ATH Score 1.1 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.9 / 12.1 8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 2.4 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 6.3 8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 13.0 / 23.0 14.0 / 17.0
Walks 5.4 / 4.0 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
ATH Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
CHC
ATH
CHC
ML
59% 95-67
58% 93-68
54% 87-74
51% 82-79
ATS
52% 84-78
61% 97-63-1
50% 81-80
47% 75-85-1
TTL
54% 84-73-5
52% 81-74-6
42% 66-90-5
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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