Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cubs @ Athletics CHC @ ATH

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

2-4  |  Road

18
FINAL
Mon, Mar 31 • 10:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

2-2  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Colin Rea
STARTING PITCHER

Colin Rea

#53 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jacob Wilson
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Wilson

#5 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Colin Rea None-None 0.00 -- 3.0 1
Jacob Wilson None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 ERA --
-- WHIP --
3.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
33%
📊
ATHLETICS
67%
CUBS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Athletics)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

47.2%

Athletics Cover

52.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

CHC By 1-2 runs

17.9%

CHC By 3-4 runs

12.7%

ATH By 1-2 runs

18.9%

ATH By 3-4 runs

14.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.92
CHICAGO
4.2
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
5
CHICAGO
3
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Athletics Loss
67% Win Prob
C
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
A
Sim Cubs (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 4, 2026 ATH @ CHC 6 - 7
Jun 3, 2026 ATH @ CHC 5 - 4
Jun 2, 2026 ATH @ CHC 2 - 1
Apr 2, 2025 CHC @ ATH 10 - 2
Apr 1, 2025 CHC @ ATH 7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Athletics ATH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.374
OPS
▲ .719
0
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +19400.0% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +381.0% more
Athletics: 4.3 vs Chicago: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5) +51.5% more
Athletics: 9.8 vs Chicago: 6.5
OPS (Season) +34.5%
Athletics: 71.9% vs Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 3.9 18
ATH Score 4.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 7.6 10.0 / 21.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.6 1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 6.5 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 11.9 / 14.0 15.0 / 41.0
Walks 3.2 / 5.0 10.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
ATH Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
CHC
ATH
CHC
ML
59% 95-67
58% 93-68
54% 87-74
51% 82-79
ATS
52% 84-78
61% 97-63-1
50% 81-80
47% 75-85-1
TTL
54% 84-73-5
52% 81-74-6
42% 66-90-5
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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