DETROIT
PISTONSDET
42-32 | Road
104
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
42-32 | Home
123
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
0%
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
PISTONS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
248.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DET -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-7 points
26.6%
DET By 8-14 points
17.8%
MIN By 1-7 points
23.6%
MIN By 8-14 points
12.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
124.92
DETROIT
Minnesota
123.36
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Detroit
118
DETROIT
Minnesota
124
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pistons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Timberwolves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pistons (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.6
D
Sim
Timberwolves (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 248.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 2, 2026
MIN @ DET
108 - 113
Mar 28, 2026
DET @ MIN
109 - 87
Mar 30, 2025
DET @ MIN
104 - 123
Jan 4, 2025
MIN @ DET
105 - 119
Mar 27, 2024
DET @ MIN
91 - 106
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+21.3% more
Detroit: 5.0
vs
Minnesota: 3.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.9%
Detroit: 43.5%
vs
Minnesota: 39.6%
Steals (L5)
+28.7% more
Minnesota: 9.9
vs
Detroit: 7.7
Turnovers (L5)
+17.4% more
Minnesota: 14.2
vs
Detroit: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
124.9
104
MIN Score
123.4
123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.6 / 43.5
38.7 / 31.6
Assists
29.7 / 27.3
24.0 / 22.0
Blocks
3.9 / 5.0
9.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
50.5 / 51.1
47.3 / 35.8
Free Throw %
78.6 / 78.9
74.2 / 75.0
Rebounding
42.5 / 42.1
59.0 / 44.0
Steals
9.9 / 7.7
3.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 12.1
10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
DET
MIN
DET
ML
54%
63-53
55%
64-53
54%
50-43
49%
47-49
ATS
58%
67-49
53%
60-54-3
54%
50-43
49%
47-49
TTL
63%
72-43-1
60%
70-46-1
100%
93-0
100%
96-0
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