ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
35-38 | Road
145
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
40-33 | Home
124
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
BUCKS
100%
HAWKS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
26.1%
ATL By 8-14 points
16.8%
MIL By 1-7 points
24.4%
MIL By 8-14 points
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
116.88
ATLANTA
Milwaukee
115.99
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Atlanta
118
ATLANTA
Milwaukee
124
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.9
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 232.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
MIL @ ATL
99 - 122
Mar 4, 2026
ATL @ MIL
131 - 113
Jan 19, 2026
MIL @ ATL
112 - 110
Mar 30, 2025
ATL @ MIL
145 - 124
Mar 4, 2025
MIL @ ATL
127 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+38.0% more
Atlanta: 9.3
vs
Milwaukee: 5.8
Turnovers (L5)
+21.4% more
Atlanta: 15.2
vs
Milwaukee: 12.0
Assists (L5)
+17.6% more
Atlanta: 30.3
vs
Milwaukee: 25.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.9%
Atlanta: 78.5%
vs
Milwaukee: 68.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
116.9
145
MIL Score
116.0
124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.3 / 39.9
34.3 / 35.4
Assists
25.0 / 30.3
21.0 / 36.0
Blocks
3.6 / 3.3
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
50.5 / 50.0
47.6 / 53.2
Free Throw %
68.6 / 78.5
79.1 / 80.0
Rebounding
36.7 / 40.3
36.0 / 46.0
Steals
5.8 / 9.3
5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 15.2
14.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
ATL
MIL
ATL
ML
64%
61-35
50%
52-52
60%
49-32
55%
48-40
ATS
68%
65-31
53%
55-48-1
60%
49-32
55%
48-40
TTL
55%
53-43
53%
55-48-1
100%
81-0
100%
88-0
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