BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
30-36-6 | Road
8
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
47-16-9 | Home
5
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Mattias Samuelsson
#23 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattias Samuelsson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 7.20 | 0.682 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
7.20
--
Save %
0.682
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
100%
CAPITALS
0%
SABRES
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
BUF By 1 goal
15.3%
BUF By 2-3 goals
14.1%
WSH By 1 goal
19.0%
WSH By 2-3 goals
23.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
3.29
BUFFALO
Washington
3.74
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Buffalo
3
BUFFALO
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Capitals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sabres
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Capitals (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.5
D
Sim
Sabres (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 4, 2026
BUF @ WSH
2 - 6
Mar 12, 2026
WSH @ BUF
2 - 1
Nov 1, 2025
WSH @ BUF
3 - 4
Mar 30, 2025
BUF @ WSH
8 - 5
Jan 6, 2025
WSH @ BUF
3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+17.9% more
Washington: 28.4
vs
Buffalo: 24.1
Faceoff % (L5)
+10.4%
Washington: 53.3%
vs
Buffalo: 43.0%
Power Play % (L5)
+23.6%
Buffalo: 24.0%
vs
Washington: 0.4%
Takeaways (L5)
+9.3% more
Buffalo: 4.9
vs
Washington: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
3.3
8
WSH Score
3.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.1 / 13.3
12.0 / 19.0
Faceoff %
53.3 / 43.0
47.2 / 52.8
Hits
16.0 / 16.3
21.0 / 16.0
Power Play %
0.4 / 24.0
50.0 / 40.0
Shots on Goal
28.4 / 24.1
29.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
4.5 / 4.9
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
BUF
WSH
BUF
ML
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
TTL
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
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