TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
44-25-4 | Road
3
ANAHEIM
DUCKSANA
32-32-8 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Chris Tanev
#8 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Lukas Dostal
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tanev | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Lukas Dostal | None-None | 3.12 | 0.870 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
3.12
--
Save %
0.870
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
DUCKS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
DUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1 goal
19.5%
TOR By 2-3 goals
32.6%
ANA By 1 goal
10.2%
ANA By 2-3 goals
7.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.41
TORONTO
Anaheim
2.09
ANAHEIM
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Anaheim
2
ANAHEIM
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.3
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 30, 2026
TOR @ ANA
5 - 4
Mar 12, 2026
ANA @ TOR
4 - 6
Mar 30, 2025
TOR @ ANA
3 - 2
Dec 12, 2024
ANA @ TOR
2 - 3
Feb 17, 2024
ANA @ TOR
2 - 9
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+42.9%
Toronto: 46.1%
vs
Anaheim: 3.2%
Hits (L5)
+24.1% more
Toronto: 26.3
vs
Anaheim: 20.0
Faceoff % (L5)
+15.1%
Toronto: 58.8%
vs
Anaheim: 43.7%
Takeaways (L5)
+38.6% more
Anaheim: 4.3
vs
Toronto: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.4
3
ANA Score
2.1
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.8 / 16.1
9.0 / 22.0
Faceoff %
43.7 / 58.8
39.7 / 60.3
Hits
20.0 / 26.3
5.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
3.2 / 46.1
25.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
32.8 / 28.7
31.0 / 23.0
Takeaways
4.3 / 3.1
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ANA
TOR
ANA
TOR
ML
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
33%
1-2
100%
4-0
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
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