PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
35-38 | Road
109
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
41-32 | Home
124
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
SUNS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.4 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -9.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
PHX By 1-7 points
11.5%
PHX By 8-14 points
3.7%
MIN By 1-7 points
23.8%
MIN By 8-14 points
27.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
115.08
PHOENIX
Minnesota
124.5
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Phoenix
118
PHOENIX
Minnesota
112
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Suns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.4
D
Sim
Suns (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 239.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
PHX @ MIN
104 - 116
Dec 8, 2025
PHX @ MIN
108 - 105
Nov 21, 2025
MIN @ PHX
113 - 114
Mar 28, 2025
PHX @ MIN
109 - 124
Mar 2, 2025
MIN @ PHX
116 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+50.7% more
Minnesota: 8.9
vs
Phoenix: 5.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Minnesota: 49.3%
vs
Phoenix: 46.6%
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.3%
Phoenix: 87.8%
vs
Minnesota: 75.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
Phoenix: 38.0%
vs
Minnesota: 35.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
115.1
109
MIN Score
124.5
124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.1 / 38.0
48.7 / 48.6
Assists
29.0 / 27.1
31.0 / 28.0
Blocks
3.9 / 3.7
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.3 / 46.6
52.8 / 51.9
Free Throw %
75.5 / 87.8
84.6 / 69.2
Rebounding
42.3 / 44.8
43.0 / 34.0
Steals
8.9 / 5.9
12.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 14.1
13.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
PHX
MIN
PHX
ML
54%
63-53
57%
60-45
54%
50-43
51%
45-43
ATS
58%
67-49
58%
59-43-3
54%
50-43
51%
45-43
TTL
63%
72-43-1
59%
61-42-2
100%
93-0
100%
88-0
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