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PHILADELPHIA

FLYERSPHI

28-35-9  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Mar 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

42-25-3  |  Home

7
Goaltending
Simon Benoit
GOALTENDER

Simon Benoit

#44 | Defense
@
Anthony Stolarz
GOALTENDER

Anthony Stolarz

#41 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Simon Benoit None-None -- -- --
Anthony Stolarz None-None 2.00 0.895 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 2.00
-- Save % 0.895
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
FLYERS --
MAPLE LEAFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Toronto)
FlyersPHI (-3.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flyers Cover

35.6%

Maple Leafs Cover

64.4%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

PHI By 1 goal

13.6%

PHI By 2-3 goals

11.4%

TOR By 1 goal

19.6%

TOR By 2-3 goals

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
1.8
PHILADELPHIA
2.54
TORONTO
Simulated Score
2
PHILADELPHIA
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -0.7
D
Sim Maple Leafs (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 4.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 2, 2026 PHI @ TOR 3 - 2
Jan 8, 2026 TOR @ PHI 2 - 1
Nov 1, 2025 TOR @ PHI 5 - 2
Mar 25, 2025 PHI @ TOR 2 - 7
Jan 7, 2025 TOR @ PHI 3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +39.8%
Toronto: 40.0% vs Philadelphia: 0.2%
Takeaways (L5) +9.2% more
Toronto: 5.2 vs Philadelphia: 4.8
Blocked Shots (L5) +8.9% more
Toronto: 18.9 vs Philadelphia: 17.3
Faceoff % (L5) +3.4%
Toronto: 55.5% vs Philadelphia: 52.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 1.8 2
TOR Score 2.5 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 18.9 / 17.3 14.0 / 9.0
Faceoff % 55.5 / 52.1 60.0 / 40.0
Hits 23.6 / 23.6 33.0 / 32.0
Power Play % 40.0 / 0.2 100.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 26.5 / 26.4 30.0 / 19.0
Takeaways 5.2 / 4.8 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
93%MONEY7%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
PHI
TOR
PHI
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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