WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
47-15-8 | Road
2
WINNIPEG
JETSWPG
48-19-4 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Connor Hellebuyck
#37 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 2.93 | 0.880 | -- |
| Connor Hellebuyck | None-None | 1.96 | 0.931 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.93
GAA
Ldr 1.96
0.880
Save %
Ldr 0.931
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
100%
JETS
0%
CAPITALS
--
JETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
WINNIPEG
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Winnipeg)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WPG -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WPG)
WSH By 1 goal
16.6%
WSH By 2-3 goals
16.6%
WPG By 1 goal
18.3%
WPG By 2-3 goals
20.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.76
WASHINGTON
Winnipeg
3.96
WINNIPEG
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Winnipeg
2
WINNIPEG
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Jets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Jets (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.2
D
Sim
Capitals (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
WSH @ WPG
1 - 5
Nov 26, 2025
WPG @ WSH
3 - 4
Mar 25, 2025
WSH @ WPG
2 - 3
Feb 1, 2025
WPG @ WSH
5 - 4
Mar 24, 2024
WPG @ WSH
0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+44.6% more
Winnipeg: 25.7
vs
Washington: 17.8
Power Play % (L5)
+14.2%
Winnipeg: 15.1%
vs
Washington: 0.9%
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.5%
Winnipeg: 52.4%
vs
Washington: 48.9%
Takeaways (L5)
+19.1% more
Washington: 5.8
vs
Winnipeg: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.8
2
WPG Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
12.7 / 14.5
20.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
52.4 / 48.9
46.2 / 53.8
Hits
25.7 / 17.8
15.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
1512.0 / 91.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.2 / 26.8
25.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
4.7 / 5.8
3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WPG
WSH
WPG
WSH
ML
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
ATS
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
100%
4-0
67%
2-1
TTL
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show at Capitals' Home Opener as Washi…
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …
Penguins Embarrassed by Capitals as Turnovers and Disorganizatio…
Alexander Ovechkin to Retire After 2026-27 Season: A Look at His…
Alex Ovechkin to Retire After 2026-27 Season, Ending 22-Year Cap…