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MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

41-31  |  Road

103
FINAL
Mon, Mar 24 • 7:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

41-29  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
📊
PACERS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.9
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.9 points (Minnesota)
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

75.5%

Pacers Cover

24.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -6.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-7 points

26.3%

MIN By 8-14 points

25.2%

IND By 1-7 points

15.5%

IND By 8-14 points

5.9%

AI Model Projected Score
125.14
MINNESOTA
118.24
INDIANA
Simulated Score
118
MINNESOTA
112
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Timberwolves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.9
D
Sim Timberwolves (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 243.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 7, 2026 MIN @ IND 124 - 104
Oct 26, 2025 IND @ MIN 110 - 114
Oct 7, 2025 IND @ MIN 135 - 134
Mar 24, 2025 MIN @ IND 103 - 119
Mar 17, 2025 IND @ MIN 132 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +35.3% more
Minnesota: 10.8 vs Indiana: 7.0
Assists (L5) +9.3% more
Minnesota: 30.5 vs Indiana: 27.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.5%
Minnesota: 39.8% vs Indiana: 34.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
Minnesota: 49.7% vs Indiana: 48.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 125.1 103
IND Score 118.2 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 39.8 37.1 / 25.7
Assists 27.6 / 30.5 30.0 / 26.0
Blocks 5.9 / 4.3 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 49.7 48.9 / 48.4
Free Throw % 81.6 / 83.3 100.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 45.2 / 41.0 46.0 / 45.0
Steals 7.0 / 10.8 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 16.5 / 13.8 12.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
IND
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
MIN
IND
MIN
ML
48% 47-50
54% 63-53
54% 45-38
54% 50-43
ATS
59% 57-40
58% 67-49
54% 45-38
54% 50-43
TTL
54% 52-45
63% 72-43-1
100% 83-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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