MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
40-30 | Road
106
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
34-37 | Home
108
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
SUNS
0%
BUCKS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
MIL By 1-7 points
23.2%
MIL By 8-14 points
12.4%
PHX By 1-7 points
26.8%
PHX By 8-14 points
18.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
115.61
MILWAUKEE
Phoenix
117.46
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
118
MILWAUKEE
Phoenix
115
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Suns
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Suns (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.8
D
Sim
Bucks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 233.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
MIL @ PHX
108 - 105
Mar 10, 2026
PHX @ MIL
129 - 114
Apr 1, 2025
PHX @ MIL
123 - 133
Mar 24, 2025
MIL @ PHX
106 - 108
Mar 17, 2024
PHX @ MIL
129 - 140
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+39.6% more
Phoenix: 32.0
vs
Milwaukee: 22.9
Turnovers (L5)
+24.0% more
Phoenix: 13.3
vs
Milwaukee: 10.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+18.2%
Phoenix: 92.3%
vs
Milwaukee: 74.1%
Rebounding (L5)
+14.1% more
Phoenix: 46.4
vs
Milwaukee: 40.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
115.6
106
PHX Score
117.5
108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.2 / 37.2
38.9 / 30.8
Assists
32.0 / 22.9
25.0 / 24.0
Blocks
4.2 / 4.1
4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
50.0 / 47.9
47.6 / 44.6
Free Throw %
92.3 / 74.1
88.9 / 69.0
Rebounding
46.4 / 40.6
52.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.0 / 8.3
2.0 / 12.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 10.7
16.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
PHX
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
MIL
PHX
MIL
ML
57%
60-45
64%
61-35
51%
45-43
60%
49-32
ATS
58%
59-43-3
68%
65-31
51%
45-43
60%
49-32
TTL
59%
61-42-2
55%
53-43
100%
88-0
100%
81-0
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