MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
39-30 | Road
114
SACRAMENTO
KINGSSAC
35-34 | Home
108
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
KINGS
0%
BUCKS
--
KINGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Sacramento)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)
MIL By 1-7 points
22.5%
MIL By 8-14 points
11.6%
SAC By 1-7 points
27.0%
SAC By 8-14 points
19.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
114.87
MILWAUKEE
Sacramento
117.25
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
118
MILWAUKEE
Sacramento
115
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Kings
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Kings (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.4
D
Sim
Bucks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 232.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 4, 2026
MIL @ SAC
115 - 98
Nov 1, 2025
SAC @ MIL
135 - 133
Mar 22, 2025
MIL @ SAC
114 - 108
Jan 14, 2025
SAC @ MIL
115 - 130
Mar 12, 2024
MIL @ SAC
94 - 129
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+22.4% more
Sacramento: 13.5
vs
Milwaukee: 11.0
Assists (L5)
+18.6% more
Sacramento: 27.7
vs
Milwaukee: 23.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.8%
Sacramento: 39.7%
vs
Milwaukee: 34.9%
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.0%
Sacramento: 82.7%
vs
Milwaukee: 78.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
114.9
114
SAC Score
117.3
108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.7 / 34.9
23.7 / 41.9
Assists
27.7 / 23.4
21.0 / 22.0
Blocks
3.8 / 4.7
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.9 / 45.6
45.1 / 52.4
Free Throw %
82.7 / 78.6
77.3 / 65.0
Rebounding
38.4 / 40.0
44.0 / 42.0
Steals
7.0 / 9.4
4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 11.0
8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
SAC
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
SAC
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -10.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
MIL
SAC
MIL
ML
55%
55-45
64%
61-35
61%
50-32
60%
49-32
ATS
54%
52-45-3
68%
65-31
61%
50-32
60%
49-32
TTL
58%
57-42-1
55%
53-43
100%
82-0
100%
81-0
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