TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
41-24-3 | Road
4
NEW YORK
RANGERSNYR
33-30-6 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Igor Shesterkin
#31 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 3.00 | 0.900 | -- |
| Igor Shesterkin | None-None | 4.17 | 0.857 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.00 Ldr
GAA
4.17
0.900 Ldr
Save %
0.857
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
RANGERS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1 goal
18.0%
TOR By 2-3 goals
20.1%
NYR By 1 goal
16.9%
NYR By 2-3 goals
17.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
2.82
TORONTO
New York
2.69
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
New York
2
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maple Leafs (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
NYR @ TOR
3 - 4
Mar 5, 2026
TOR @ NYR
2 - 6
Oct 16, 2025
NYR @ TOR
1 - 2
Mar 20, 2025
TOR @ NYR
4 - 3
Feb 28, 2025
TOR @ NYR
3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+62.3%
Toronto: 65.0%
vs
New York: 2.7%
Takeaways (L5)
+56.6% more
Toronto: 6.3
vs
New York: 2.7
Shots on Goal (L5)
+21.6% more
Toronto: 26.1
vs
New York: 20.5
Blocked Shots (L5)
+16.1% more
Toronto: 18.2
vs
New York: 15.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
2.8
4
NYR Score
2.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.3 / 18.2
10.0 / 20.0
Faceoff %
55.5 / 59.5
45.5 / 54.5
Hits
28.0 / 24.6
33.0 / 27.0
Power Play %
272.0 / 6497.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
20.5 / 26.1
30.0 / 28.0
Takeaways
2.7 / 6.3
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYR
TOR
NYR
TOR
ML
80%
4-1
50%
2-2
40%
2-3
50%
2-2
ATS
80%
4-1
0%
0-4
60%
3-2
75%
3-1
TTL
60%
3-2
100%
4-0
60%
3-2
75%
3-1
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