PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
28-33-8 | Road
2
WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
45-15-8 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Egor Zamula
#5 | D@
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egor Zamula | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 2.00 | 0.964 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
2.00
--
Save %
0.964
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
CAPITALS
0%
FLYERS
--
CAPITALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
PHI By 1 goal
15.6%
PHI By 2-3 goals
14.7%
WSH By 1 goal
18.8%
WSH By 2-3 goals
22.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
2.3
PHILADELPHIA
Washington
2.68
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Capitals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Capitals
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Capitals (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.4
D
Sim
Capitals (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 31, 2026
PHI @ WSH
4 - 6
Mar 11, 2026
WSH @ PHI
1 - 4
Feb 25, 2026
PHI @ WSH
1 - 3
Feb 3, 2026
WSH @ PHI
2 - 4
Sep 25, 2025
PHI @ WSH
1 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+13.3% more
Washington: 27.6
vs
Philadelphia: 24.3
Hits (L5)
+42.0% more
Philadelphia: 29.3
vs
Washington: 17.0
Blocked Shots (L5)
+33.4% more
Philadelphia: 16.8
vs
Washington: 11.2
Takeaways (L5)
+17.9% more
Philadelphia: 4.1
vs
Washington: 3.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
2.3
2
WSH Score
2.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.2 / 16.8
13.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
48.1 / 48.6
50.0 / 50.0
Hits
17.0 / 29.3
13.0 / 18.0
Power Play %
205.0 / 73.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.6 / 24.3
16.0 / 28.0
Takeaways
3.4 / 4.1
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PHI
WSH
PHI
ML
100%
3-0
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
25%
1-3
TTL
33%
1-2
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
Contextual Game News
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