COLORADO
AVALANCHECOL
41-24-3 | Road
1
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
40-24-3 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Mackenzie Blackwood
#39 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Chris Tanev
#8 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood | None-None | 2.06 | 0.923 | -- |
| Chris Tanev | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.06
GAA
--
0.923
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
AVALANCHE
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
AVALANCHE
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around COL -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
COL By 1 goal
19.5%
COL By 2-3 goals
26.4%
TOR By 1 goal
13.9%
TOR By 2-3 goals
11.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
3.95
COLORADO
Toronto
3.25
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Colorado
3
COLORADO
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Avalanche
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Avalanche (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.7
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 25, 2026
COL @ TOR
4 - 1
Jan 12, 2026
TOR @ COL
4 - 3
Mar 19, 2025
COL @ TOR
1 - 2
Mar 8, 2025
TOR @ COL
4 - 7
Feb 24, 2024
TOR @ COL
4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+16.0% more
Colorado: 5.9
vs
Toronto: 4.9
Shots on Goal (L5)
+13.8% more
Colorado: 30.4
vs
Toronto: 26.2
Power Play % (L5)
+30.1%
Toronto: 47.5%
vs
Colorado: 17.3%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+29.7% more
Toronto: 17.8
vs
Colorado: 13.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
4.0
1
TOR Score
3.3
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.8 / 13.8
19.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
60.1 / 53.6
58.3 / 41.7
Hits
26.4 / 21.1
21.0 / 20.0
Power Play %
47.5 / 17.3
100.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
26.2 / 30.4
26.0 / 39.0
Takeaways
4.9 / 5.9
9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
COL
TOR
COL
ML
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
100%
4-0
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
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