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CALGARY

FLAMESCGY

30-24-11  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, Mar 17 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

39-24-3  |  Home

6
Goaltending
Dustin Wolf
GOALTENDER

Dustin Wolf

#32 | Goaltender
@
Chris Tanev
GOALTENDER

Chris Tanev

#8 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Dustin Wolf None-None 7.50 0.808 --
Chris Tanev None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
7.50 GAA --
0.808 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
FLAMES
100%
📊
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
FLAMES --
MAPLE LEAFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Toronto)
FlamesCGY (-3.5) 0 Maple LeafsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flames Cover

35.9%

Maple Leafs Cover

64.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

CGY By 1 goal

13.7%

CGY By 2-3 goals

11.6%

TOR By 1 goal

19.6%

TOR By 2-3 goals

26.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2.26
CALGARY
2.98
TORONTO
Simulated Score
2
CALGARY
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Maple Leafs Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Maple Leafs (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -0.7
D
Sim Maple Leafs (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 2, 2026 TOR @ CGY 4 - 2
Oct 28, 2025 CGY @ TOR 3 - 4
Mar 17, 2025 CGY @ TOR 2 - 6
Feb 4, 2025 TOR @ CGY 6 - 3
Jan 18, 2024 TOR @ CGY 4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +11.4% more
Toronto: 29.6 vs Calgary: 26.5
Takeaways (L5) +8.9% more
Toronto: 4.9 vs Calgary: 4.5
Faceoff % (L5) +8.4%
Toronto: 54.6% vs Calgary: 46.2%
Power Play % (L5) +7.8%
Calgary: 29.0% vs Toronto: 21.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CGY Score 2.3 2
TOR Score 3.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 15.2 / 15.8 23.0 / 10.0
Faceoff % 54.6 / 46.2 71.2 / 28.8
Hits 29.6 / 26.5 20.0 / 31.0
Power Play % 21.2 / 29.0 100.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 24.8 / 24.7 29.0 / 26.0
Takeaways 4.9 / 4.5 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
83%MONEY17%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
CGY
TOR
CGY
ML
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
ATS
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
TTL
100% 4-0
67% 2-1
75% 3-1
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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