OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
35-25-5 | Road
4
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
39-23-3 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Linus Ullmark
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark | None-None | 2.00 | 0.913 | -- |
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 3.12 | 0.875 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.00 Ldr
GAA
3.12
0.913 Ldr
Save %
0.875
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
SENATORS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around OTT -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
OTT By 1 goal
19.7%
OTT By 2-3 goals
31.1%
TOR By 1 goal
11.2%
TOR By 2-3 goals
8.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
4.05
OTTAWA
Toronto
2.9
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Senators
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Senators (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.2
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 3, 2026
OTT @ TOR
3 - 2
Apr 15, 2026
TOR @ OTT
1 - 3
Mar 21, 2026
TOR @ OTT
2 - 5
Feb 28, 2026
OTT @ TOR
5 - 2
Dec 27, 2025
OTT @ TOR
5 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+15.1% more
Ottawa: 28.7
vs
Toronto: 24.4
Shots on Goal (L5)
+11.4% more
Ottawa: 28.9
vs
Toronto: 25.6
Power Play % (L5)
+4.6%
Toronto: 31.8%
vs
Ottawa: 27.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
4.1
4
TOR Score
2.9
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.4 / 15.6
13.0 / 18.0
Faceoff %
55.2 / 54.5
53.4 / 46.6
Hits
24.4 / 28.7
40.0 / 24.0
Power Play %
31.8 / 27.2
0.0 / 100.0
Shots on Goal
25.6 / 28.9
23.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
4.9 / 4.8
5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
OTT
TOR
OTT
ML
50%
2-2
0%
0-3
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-4
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
TTL
100%
4-0
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
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