DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
33-34 | Road
96
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
41-25 | Home
133
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
MAVERICKS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
DAL By 1-7 points
21.8%
DAL By 8-14 points
10.8%
HOU By 1-7 points
27.2%
HOU By 8-14 points
20.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
110.07
DALLAS
Houston
112.97
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Dallas
118
DALLAS
Houston
105
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mavericks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.9
D
Sim
Mavericks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 31, 2026
DAL @ HOU
107 - 111
Jan 3, 2026
HOU @ DAL
104 - 110
Dec 6, 2025
HOU @ DAL
109 - 122
Nov 3, 2025
DAL @ HOU
102 - 110
Mar 14, 2025
DAL @ HOU
96 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+99.1% more
Houston: 4.2
vs
Dallas: 2.1
Rebounding (L5)
+35.2% more
Houston: 48.1
vs
Dallas: 35.6
Steals (L5)
+9.0% more
Houston: 8.1
vs
Dallas: 7.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.1%
Dallas: 80.0%
vs
Houston: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
110.1
96
HOU Score
113.0
133
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.2 / 36.5
48.4 / 36.4
Assists
25.0 / 27.6
27.0 / 14.0
Blocks
4.2 / 2.1
6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
46.4 / 50.3
51.4 / 41.5
Free Throw %
69.9 / 80.0
83.3 / 83.3
Rebounding
48.1 / 35.6
67.0 / 34.0
Steals
8.1 / 7.5
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.9 / 13.0
11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
Advantage
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
DAL
HOU
DAL
ML
61%
69-44
62%
63-39
59%
51-35
54%
44-37
ATS
62%
70-43
67%
68-34
59%
51-35
54%
44-37
TTL
51%
58-55
59%
60-41-1
100%
86-0
100%
81-0
Contextual Game News
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