Home / NBA Projections NBA / Lakers @ Bucks LAL @ MIL

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

40-23  |  Road

106
FINAL
Thu, Mar 13 • 7:30 PM ET
Fiserv Forum
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BUCKSMIL

36-28  |  Home

126
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
BUCKS
0%
LAKERS --
BUCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Milwaukee)
LakersLAL (-3.5) 0 BucksMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

46.9%

Bucks Cover

53.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

LAL By 1-7 points

24.5%

LAL By 8-14 points

14.1%

MIL By 1-7 points

26.0%

MIL By 8-14 points

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
114.02
LOS ANGELES
114.8
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
118
LOS ANGELES
122
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bucks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bucks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bucks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.8
D
Sim Bucks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 228.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 9, 2026 MIL @ LAL 105 - 101
Nov 15, 2025 LAL @ MIL 119 - 95
Mar 20, 2025 MIL @ LAL 118 - 89
Mar 13, 2025 LAL @ MIL 106 - 126
Oct 10, 2024 LAL @ MIL 107 - 102
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Milwaukee: 50.1% vs Los Angeles: 45.4%
Blocks (L5) +24.3% more
Los Angeles: 3.7 vs Milwaukee: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAL Score 114.0 106
MIL Score 114.8 126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.6 / 39.1 42.5 / 37.5
Assists 25.1 / 25.5 30.0 / 18.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.7 8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 50.1 / 45.4 47.7 / 43.7
Free Throw % 75.7 / 75.1 81.8 / 83.3
Rebounding 46.3 / 45.4 48.0 / 38.0
Steals 6.6 / 6.3 9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 15.3 / 15.1 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAL Advantage
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
MIL
32-50-0 (39.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
MIL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
LAL
MIL
LAL
ML
64% 61-35
61% 68-43
60% 49-32
54% 49-42
ATS
68% 65-31
61% 67-43-1
60% 49-32
54% 49-42
TTL
55% 53-43
61% 66-43-2
100% 81-0
100% 91-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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