FLORIDA
PANTHERSFLA
40-22-3 | Road
3
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
39-22-3 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Steven Lorentz
#18 | C@
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Lorentz | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 3.10 | 0.880 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
3.10
--
Save %
0.880
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
PANTHERS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Florida)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around FLA -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)
FLA By 1 goal
19.1%
FLA By 2-3 goals
24.0%
TOR By 1 goal
15.1%
TOR By 2-3 goals
13.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Florida
3.67
FLORIDA
Toronto
3.19
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Florida
3
FLORIDA
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Panthers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Panthers (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.5
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 11, 2026
FLA @ TOR
6 - 2
Feb 26, 2026
TOR @ FLA
1 - 5
Jan 6, 2026
FLA @ TOR
1 - 4
Dec 2, 2025
TOR @ FLA
4 - 1
May 18, 2025
FLA @ TOR
6 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+23.9% more
Florida: 32.3
vs
Toronto: 24.5
Shots on Goal (L5)
+20.5% more
Florida: 32.7
vs
Toronto: 26.0
Blocked Shots (L5)
+70.6% more
Toronto: 17.6
vs
Florida: 10.3
Power Play % (L5)
+25.3%
Toronto: 47.6%
vs
Florida: 22.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FLA Score
3.7
3
TOR Score
3.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.6 / 10.3
14.0 / 12.0
Faceoff %
58.2 / 48.0
49.1 / 50.9
Hits
24.5 / 32.3
24.0 / 40.0
Power Play %
47.6 / 22.4
0.0 / 66.7
Shots on Goal
26.0 / 32.7
25.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
5.3 / 5.0
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
FLA
TOR
FLA
ML
50%
2-2
0%
0-4
50%
2-2
0%
0-4
ATS
0%
0-4
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
TTL
100%
4-0
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
0%
0-4
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