MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
37-29 | Road
115
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
42-23 | Home
95
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
NUGGETS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
239.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.7
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.7 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -7.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-7 points
25.6%
MIN By 8-14 points
26.0%
DEN By 1-7 points
14.2%
DEN By 8-14 points
5.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
123.52
MINNESOTA
Denver
115.82
DENVER
Simulated Score
Minnesota
118
MINNESOTA
Denver
124
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.7
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 239.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
DEN @ MIN
98 - 110
Apr 27, 2026
MIN @ DEN
113 - 125
Apr 25, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 112
Apr 23, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 113
Apr 20, 2026
MIN @ DEN
119 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+28.3% more
Minnesota: 8.3
vs
Denver: 5.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.6%
Minnesota: 79.1%
vs
Denver: 76.5%
Blocks (L5)
+16.1% more
Denver: 5.0
vs
Minnesota: 4.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
Denver: 52.5%
vs
Minnesota: 50.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
123.5
115
DEN Score
115.8
95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
44.3 / 43.4
23.3 / 42.5
Assists
30.8 / 31.4
20.0 / 31.0
Blocks
5.0 / 4.3
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
52.5 / 50.9
40.4 / 47.8
Free Throw %
76.5 / 79.1
72.7 / 75.0
Rebounding
44.3 / 41.7
42.0 / 48.0
Steals
5.9 / 8.3
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 12.1
10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
MIN
DEN
MIN
ML
54%
57-48
54%
63-53
55%
47-39
54%
50-43
ATS
63%
65-38-2
58%
67-49
55%
47-39
54%
50-43
TTL
54%
56-48-1
63%
72-43-1
100%
86-0
100%
93-0
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