Home / NHL Projections NHL / Senators @ Flyers OTT @ PHI

OTTAWA

SENATORSOTT

33-25-5  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Mar 11 • 7:00 PM ET
Wells Fargo Center
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

FLYERSPHI

27-30-8  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Artem Zub
GOALTENDER

Artem Zub

#2 | Defense
@
Ivan Fedotov
GOALTENDER

Ivan Fedotov

#82 | G
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Artem Zub None-None -- -- --
Ivan Fedotov None-None 4.21 0.826 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 4.21
-- Save % 0.826
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
0%
📊
FLYERS
100%
SENATORS --
FLYERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Ottawa)
SenatorsOTT (-3.5) 0 FlyersPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Senators Cover

52.2%

Flyers Cover

47.8%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around OTT -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)

OTT By 1 goal

17.9%

OTT By 2-3 goals

19.8%

PHI By 1 goal

17.0%

PHI By 2-3 goals

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
2.8
OTTAWA
2.69
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
3
OTTAWA
2
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Senators Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Senators Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Senators (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim Senators (-0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 5.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 5, 2026 OTT @ PHI 2 - 1
Nov 8, 2025 OTT @ PHI 3 - 2
Oct 23, 2025 PHI @ OTT 1 - 2
Apr 13, 2025 PHI @ OTT 3 - 4
Mar 11, 2025 OTT @ PHI 5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +27.7% more
Ottawa: 32.8 vs Philadelphia: 23.7
Power Play % (L5) +20.0%
Ottawa: 23.6% vs Philadelphia: 3.7%
Shots on Goal (L5) +11.5% more
Ottawa: 29.1 vs Philadelphia: 25.8
Faceoff % (L5) +10.3%
Ottawa: 56.8% vs Philadelphia: 46.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OTT Score 2.8 5
PHI Score 2.7 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 15.7 / 12.8 11.0 / 22.0
Faceoff % 46.5 / 56.8 48.2 / 51.8
Hits 23.7 / 32.8 24.0 / 29.0
Power Play % 368.0 / 2363.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 25.8 / 29.1 22.0 / 24.0
Takeaways 5.2 / 5.1 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
89%MONEY11%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
OTT
PHI
OTT
ML
75% 3-1
0% 0-3
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-3
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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