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CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

53-10  |  Road

112
FINAL
Sun, Mar 9 • 8:00 PM ET
Fiserv Forum
View Odds Details →

MILWAUKEE

BUCKSMIL

36-26  |  Home

100
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
0%
📊
BUCKS
100%
CAVALIERS --
BUCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
247.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.9
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.9 points (Cleveland)
CavaliersCLE (-3.5) 0 BucksMIL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cavaliers Cover

86.3%

Bucks Cover

13.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLE -10.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-7 points

21.7%

CLE By 8-14 points

27.4%

MIL By 1-7 points

9.4%

MIL By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
129.15
CLEVELAND
118.21
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
118
CLEVELAND
124
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bucks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cavaliers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.9
D
Sim Bucks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 247.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 17, 2026 CLE @ MIL 123 - 116
Feb 25, 2026 CLE @ MIL 116 - 118
Nov 17, 2025 MIL @ CLE 106 - 118
Oct 26, 2025 MIL @ CLE 113 - 118
Mar 9, 2025 CLE @ MIL 112 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +2.8%
Cleveland: 81.8% vs Milwaukee: 79.0%
Turnovers (L5) +11.5% more
Milwaukee: 14.2 vs Cleveland: 12.7
Field Goal % (L5) +7.1%
Milwaukee: 52.8% vs Cleveland: 45.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.5%
Milwaukee: 41.0% vs Cleveland: 36.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 129.2 112
MIL Score 118.2 100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.0 / 36.6 29.0 / 40.4
Assists 24.0 / 22.9 17.0 / 25.0
Blocks 3.8 / 4.1 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 52.8 / 45.7 42.9 / 44.3
Free Throw % 79.0 / 81.8 72.2 / 78.9
Rebounding 46.1 / 47.5 50.0 / 44.0
Steals 7.4 / 6.9 9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 12.7 18.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
MIL
32-50-0 (39.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
MIL Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
CLE
MIL
CLE
ML
64% 61-35
60% 69-46
60% 49-32
56% 55-44
ATS
68% 65-31
67% 75-37-3
60% 49-32
56% 55-44
TTL
55% 53-43
59% 68-47
100% 81-0
100% 99-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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