TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
38-21-3 | Road
4
COLORADO
AVALANCHECOL
37-24-2 | Home
7
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Anthony Stolarz
#41 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Mackenzie Blackwood
#39 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz | None-None | 5.12 | 0.844 | -- |
| Mackenzie Blackwood | None-None | 4.03 | 0.810 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
5.12
GAA
Ldr 4.03
0.844 Ldr
Save %
0.810
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
AVALANCHE
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AVALANCHE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around COL -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
TOR By 1 goal
12.6%
TOR By 2-3 goals
10.0%
COL By 1 goal
19.7%
COL By 2-3 goals
28.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.28
TORONTO
Colorado
4.19
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Colorado
4
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Avalanche
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Avalanche
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Avalanche (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.9
D
Sim
Avalanche (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 25, 2026
COL @ TOR
4 - 1
Jan 12, 2026
TOR @ COL
4 - 3
Mar 19, 2025
COL @ TOR
1 - 2
Mar 8, 2025
TOR @ COL
4 - 7
Feb 24, 2024
TOR @ COL
4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+38.0% more
Colorado: 5.1
vs
Toronto: 3.7
Power Play % (L5)
+37.0%
Colorado: 64.2%
vs
Toronto: 27.2%
Hits (L5)
+50.5% more
Toronto: 27.9
vs
Colorado: 13.8
Blocked Shots (L5)
+14.2% more
Toronto: 15.2
vs
Colorado: 13.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.3
4
COL Score
4.2
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.1 / 15.2
10.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
51.2 / 59.5
35.7 / 64.3
Hits
13.8 / 27.9
23.0 / 23.0
Power Play %
64.2 / 27.2
33.3 / 100.0
Shots on Goal
30.3 / 28.4
34.0 / 21.0
Takeaways
5.1 / 3.7
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
TOR
COL
TOR
ML
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
67%
2-1
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
33%
1-2
100%
4-0
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
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