MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
35-29 | Road
106
MIAMI
HEATMIA
29-32 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
HEAT
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
220.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-7 points
26.2%
MIN By 8-14 points
16.9%
MIA By 1-7 points
24.3%
MIA By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
110.94
MINNESOTA
Miami
109.95
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Minnesota
118
MINNESOTA
Miami
122
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 220.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 6, 2026
MIA @ MIN
94 - 122
Jan 3, 2026
MIN @ MIA
125 - 115
Mar 7, 2025
MIN @ MIA
106 - 104
Nov 10, 2024
MIA @ MIN
95 - 94
Dec 18, 2023
MIN @ MIA
112 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+27.6% more
Minnesota: 10.4
vs
Miami: 7.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.3%
Minnesota: 40.1%
vs
Miami: 36.9%
Turnovers (L5)
+30.9% more
Miami: 13.8
vs
Minnesota: 10.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.2%
Miami: 83.6%
vs
Minnesota: 79.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
110.9
106
MIA Score
110.0
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 40.1
41.2 / 40.0
Assists
29.5 / 28.1
29.0 / 28.0
Blocks
3.5 / 3.7
2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
48.0 / 48.1
46.1 / 49.4
Free Throw %
83.6 / 79.4
72.7 / 57.1
Rebounding
41.8 / 40.7
41.0 / 43.0
Steals
7.5 / 10.4
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.8 / 10.5
9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
MIN
MIA
MIN
ML
48%
46-50
54%
63-53
59%
48-34
54%
50-43
ATS
51%
49-47
58%
67-49
59%
48-34
54%
50-43
TTL
59%
57-39
63%
72-43-1
100%
82-0
100%
93-0
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