DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
32-30 | Road
107
MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
35-25 | Home
137
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
BUCKS
0%
MAVERICKS
--
BUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIL -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
DAL By 1-7 points
21.8%
DAL By 8-14 points
10.8%
MIL By 1-7 points
27.2%
MIL By 8-14 points
20.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
111.32
DALLAS
Milwaukee
114.22
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Dallas
118
DALLAS
Milwaukee
122
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bucks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.9
D
Sim
Bucks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 225.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 240.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 31, 2026
DAL @ MIL
99 - 123
Nov 10, 2025
MIL @ DAL
116 - 114
Mar 5, 2025
DAL @ MIL
107 - 137
Mar 1, 2025
MIL @ DAL
132 - 117
Oct 17, 2024
MIL @ DAL
84 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+20.9% more
Milwaukee: 47.7
vs
Dallas: 39.5
Turnovers (L5)
+8.8% more
Milwaukee: 13.7
vs
Dallas: 12.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.0%
Milwaukee: 48.7%
vs
Dallas: 44.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Milwaukee: 33.6%
vs
Dallas: 31.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
111.3
107
MIL Score
114.2
137
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.6 / 31.2
45.7 / 33.3
Assists
26.7 / 25.7
29.0 / 30.0
Blocks
3.5 / 3.6
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.7 / 44.6
58.4 / 45.9
Free Throw %
80.8 / 81.9
89.5 / 40.0
Rebounding
47.7 / 39.5
55.0 / 30.0
Steals
7.5 / 7.2
6.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 12.6
17.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
MIL
Advantage
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
DAL
MIL
DAL
ML
64%
61-35
62%
63-39
60%
49-32
54%
44-37
ATS
68%
65-31
67%
68-34
60%
49-32
54%
44-37
TTL
55%
53-43
59%
60-41-1
100%
81-0
100%
81-0
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