MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
34-25 | Road
127
ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
28-33 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
0%
HAWKS
100%
BUCKS
--
HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
234.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIL -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-7 points
27.1%
MIL By 8-14 points
19.6%
ATL By 1-7 points
22.1%
ATL By 8-14 points
11.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
118.32
MILWAUKEE
Atlanta
115.64
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
118
MILWAUKEE
Atlanta
112
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bucks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bucks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bucks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.7
D
Sim
Bucks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 234.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 14, 2026
MIL @ ATL
99 - 122
Mar 4, 2026
ATL @ MIL
131 - 113
Jan 19, 2026
MIL @ ATL
112 - 110
Mar 30, 2025
ATL @ MIL
145 - 124
Mar 4, 2025
MIL @ ATL
127 - 121
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+14.3% more
Milwaukee: 46.0
vs
Atlanta: 39.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.6%
Milwaukee: 82.0%
vs
Atlanta: 68.4%
Steals (L5)
+31.2% more
Atlanta: 9.6
vs
Milwaukee: 7.3
Assists (L5)
+15.9% more
Atlanta: 30.7
vs
Milwaukee: 26.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
118.3
127
ATL Score
115.6
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.6 / 35.5
39.0 / 29.7
Assists
30.7 / 26.5
33.0 / 27.0
Blocks
5.2 / 4.8
6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
51.3 / 47.5
45.5 / 51.0
Free Throw %
68.4 / 82.0
76.5 / 78.3
Rebounding
39.4 / 46.0
47.0 / 51.0
Steals
9.6 / 7.3
10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
15.1 / 13.0
12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
MIL
ATL
MIL
ML
50%
52-52
64%
61-35
55%
48-40
60%
49-32
ATS
53%
55-48-1
68%
65-31
55%
48-40
60%
49-32
TTL
53%
55-48-1
55%
53-43
100%
88-0
100%
81-0
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